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The lottery is obviously pretty hard to win, but of course, we had to test it ourselves, so we got a few Wired colleagues to play a scratcher game.
彩票明显很難中奖，但固然，咱們必需本身测試，以是咱們找了一些連線節目標同事来玩刮刮樂遊戲。
I didn't win anything.
我甚麼也没赢。
I did not win anything.
我甚麼也没赢。
Nothing.
甚麼也没赢？
I got nothing.
我一無所得。
I lost.
我输了。
But I didn't. Nothing.
但我没有中奖。甚麼都没有。
I have won $5, so I'm up by $2.
我中了 5 美元，以是我总雙赢了 2 美元。
Scratchers are just one of the many lottery games out there.
刮刮樂只是浩繁彩票遊戲之一。
Beyond that, you have draw games at both the state and national level, and in particular, the Powerball, which keeps on making the news because the jackpots are so big.
除此以外，另有州级和國度级的抽奖遊戲，特别是强力球，它一向是消息，由于头奖太大了。
There are definitely lotteries that are easier to win than other lotteries.
必定有彩票比其他彩票更易中奖。
When you gamble normally, a bigger chance of winning means lower payout.
当你正常打赌時，更大的获胜機會心味着更低的付出。
So, for example, this is familiar from roulette where, if you bet on red or black, you get less money in return than if you bet on a single number where you get a lot more in return because your odds of winning with red or black bet is much higher.
举個例子，這在轮盘赌中很常见，若是你赌赤色或玄色，你获得的回報比你赌一個数字要少，若是你赌数字，你會获得更多的回報，由于你赌赤色或玄色获胜的概率要高很多。
Similarly, your odds of winning on a Powerball or Mega Millions ticket are very low, about one in 300,000,000.
一样，你博得强力球或百万彩票的概率也很低，约莫是三亿分之一。
Let's look at that one more time.
讓咱們再看一遍。
Your chances of winning the Powerball Jackpot equal about one in 300,000,000.
你博得强力球大奖的機遇约為 300，000，000 分之一。
There are all kinds of lottery prizes out there and some of them are still pretty big, but they're not $1,000,000,000.
有各類各样的彩票奖金，此中一些依然很大，但不是 10 亿美元。
Next, playing certain numbers.
下一種，玩一些数字。
Well, you're not gonna increase your chances of winning by some strategy about how you pick the exact numbers that you pick.
嗯，你没法經由過程選擇某些切当数字的计谋来增长你获胜的機遇。
However, for games like Powerball and Mega Millions, what you'd like to do, if you win the jackpot, is to be the only one who wins the jackpot so you don't split it.
但是，對付像强力球和百万大亨如许的遊戲，若是你赢了头奖，你想做的是成為独一一個博得头奖的人，如许你就不消跟他人分享它。
So, with that perspective in mind, you'd like to pick unpopular numbers.
以是，從這個角度来看，你想選擇不受接待的数字。
You'd like to pick numbers that other people won't pick.
你想選擇其别人不會選擇的数字。
Don't pick dates, for example, because a lot of people gamble based on dates.
比方，不要選擇日期，由于不少人按照日期打赌。
Other advice might be, if you look at the ticket where you pic淡紋面膜,k your numbers, don't just pick a column of numbers on that ticket, for example, because some people will do that.
其他建议多是，若是你看着你選擇数字的票，比方，不要只選擇票上的一列数字，由于有些人會這麼做。
Repeat winners, like Richard Lustig, won over $1,000,000, advocated for playing sequential numbers.
像理查德·卢斯蒂格如许博得了跨越 100 万美元的反复获胜者主意玩次序数字。
Now, this won't increase your odds of winning.
這不會增长你获胜的概率。
That kind of thing is gonna give you the same chance of winning the jackpot as any other method of choosing.
它讓你博得头奖的機遇跟其他法子同样。
However, if you loo髮際粉,k at a ticket like that, it looks weird.
但是，若是你如许看一张彩票，看起来很奇异。
So many sequential numbers help you not share the jackpot, which is good.
不少序号會帮忙你不跟他人分享头奖，這很好。
I don't know, but that's how it strikes me as a mathematician.
我不晓得，但作為一個数學家，生髪,這美白藥膏,就是它给我的印象。
So, what are some ways that people attempt to increase their odds of winning the lottery?
那末，人們有哪些法子可以增长中彩票的概率呢？
First, playing every single number combination in the drawing.
起首，写出每個数字组合。
So, for Mega Millions and Powerball, that's not really a feasible choice 'cause there's 300,000,000 tickets.
以是，對付超等百万和强力球来讲，這不是一個可行的選擇，由于有 3 亿张彩票。
It's super hard to go to the store and buy that many tickets.
你很難去商铺買那末多彩票。
You need a whole army of helpers.
你必要一大群帮忙。
It's a complicated endeavor, but for smaller state level lotteries, which have fewer tickets that you have to buy, and also a smaller jackpot, people have done that.
如许费劲不奉迎，可是對付较小的州级彩票来讲，你得采办的彩票更少，头奖也更小，人們已如许做了。
So, in particular, in New South Wales in 1986, a syndicate did that in Virginia in 1992, and then with the Irish National Lottery.
是以，出格是 1986 年在新南威尔士州，1992 年一個财团在弗吉尼亚州就如许做了，然後是爱尔兰國度彩票。
Now, in these cases, they didn't actually succeed in getting 100% of the tickets, but they got enough that they got lucky and they did win the jackpot.
在這些環境下，他們现實上并無樂成得到全数彩票，可是他們命運實足，他們确切博得了头奖。
Now, if you do actually decide to do this, there are a bit of logistics involved.
若是你真的决议做這件事，就會触及到一些後勤事情。
You're actually gonna have to go to the stores and buy those tickets.
你得去商铺買那些彩票。
You can't just pay the clerk in a lottery store to buy those tickets 'cause they're not allowed to do that by most lottery regulations, and there's another 'gotcha' that's really obvious, which is it could happen that someone else also wins the jackpot and you have to split it with them.
你不克不及只是付錢给彩票商铺的伙计去買那些彩票，@由%G1637%于大大%WR9mj%都@彩票律例不容许他們如许做，另有一個很是较着的“缘由”，那就是有可能其别人也赢了头奖，你必需和他們等分。
So, as someone trying to pursue this strategy, you absolutely want to keep your eyes open to that possibility.
以是，作為一個想要利用這類计谋的人，你绝對要睁大眼睛领會到這類可能性。
Finally, some states have a higher chance of winning than others.
最後，一些州比其他州中奖的機遇更高。
Statisticians and economists have mapped out states that have a high rate of return.
统计學家和經濟學家已绘制出了回報率高的州。
A good recipe to look for is you want a lottery where maybe not a lot of people are buying tickets and yet, the jackpot is pretty big.
一個很好的法子是，你想要一张彩票，或许没有几多人買，但是，头奖至關大。
So, there's a classic example of Oregon in 1999.
這是 1999 年俄勒冈州的一個經典例子。
They had an $18,000,000 jackpot and yet, they didn't sell that many tickets, and what that means is when you buy a ticket in such a drawing, you're unlikely to share the jackpot.
他們的头奖有 18，000，000 美元，但是，他們没有賣那末多张票，這象征着当你在如许的抽奖中買一张彩票時，你不太可能跟他人分享头奖。
Similarly, in mid-aughts in Texas, the Llano, Texas had drawings like that as well, and so looking around for those kinds of drawings, that's one way to increase your expected return on buying a lottery ticket.
雷同地，在德克萨斯州的 Llano，德克萨斯州也有如许的抽奖勾当，以是四周寻觅如许的抽奖，這是增长采办彩票理论上收益的一種法子。
And scratchers can have a high rate of return as well.
刮刮樂的回報率也很高。
The lottery has printed it out and picked the prizes in such a way that the total value of the prizes is less than the amount people are gonna spend on tickets, so they're gonna make money.
彩票公司事前把彩票打印出来，并以如许一種方法筛選中奖者，奖品的总價值低于人們在彩票上的耗费，以是他們可以或许赚錢。
On average, you buy scratcher tickets and you're gonna lose money, just like any other gambling.
均匀来讲，你買刮刮樂，你會赔錢，就像其他打赌同样。
That said, sometimes it happens that the big prizes in the scratcher game don't get bought at the beginning of the game, and so effectively, all the people buying up those tickets at the beginning got unlucky and they didn't get the big prizes and then the remaining lottery tickets, the remaining scratchers that wait to be bought, have too many prizes.
也就是说，有時辰刮刮樂遊戲中的大奖不會在遊戲起头時被買下，以是现實上，所有一起头買票的人都不交運，他們没法获得大奖，然後剩下的彩票，剩下的期待采办的刮刮樂里有不少奖。
Many states show you how many of the prizes have been claimed and that information gets aggregated into other websites like scratch off-odds. com and similar sites where you can go to that site and they'll tell you sort of which lottery scratcher ticket games have better payouts right now.
很多州會奉告你有几多奖項已被领取，這些信息會被汇总到其他網站，好比 scratch off-odds.com 和雷同的網站，你可以去阿谁網站，他們會奉告你哪些彩票刮刮樂彩票遊戲如今有更好的收益。
Okay, so even if you've watched this entire video and still think, "I need to win a lottery," is there a way you can actually guarantee a lottery win?
好的，以是即便你看完了全部視频，依然在想，“我必要中彩票”，有無法子包管你真的能中彩票？
You find a game where you have to guess a four-digit number and you bet the six-way box.
你找到一個遊戲，你必需猜一個四位数的数字，然後你赌 six-way box。（注：box 是一種弄法，選出的数字只要数字不异便可，次序不消不异）
That means you're gonna bet on a four-digit number with repeated digits, like 1122, or 1212.
這象征着你要赌一個 4 位数的数字上面有反复的数字，好比 1122 或 1212。
And if you bet a six-way box, it bets all the six possible ways of writing a number with two ones in it and two twos in it.
若是你赌一 six-way box，那末它就是赌所有 6 種写出一個包括两個 1 或两個 2 的数字。
And if you do that, your odds of winning are one in 1,667.
若是你如许做了，你的胜算是 1667 分之一。
And in most states, if you hit that, if you win that bet, you wil減肥藥,l get $800, which means you gotta go to a lottery office.
在大大都州，若是你中了這個奖，若是你赢了，你會获得 800 美，元這象征着你得去彩票局。
You probably will lose money, just so you know.
你可能會赔錢，正如你所知。
It is not a recipe for making money, but it is a recipe for getting to that lottery office with the least amount of effort.
這不是赚錢的法門，但這是一個用起码的尽力去阿谁彩票办公室的法門。
And there even used to be a game where you were almost guaranteed to win.
乃至曾有一種你几近必定會赢的遊戲。
Marge and Jerry Selbee ended up winning almost $8,000,000 playing the Massachusetts Cash Windfall.
玛吉和杰瑞·塞尔比终极在 Massachusetts Cash Windfall 中博得了近 800 万美元。
They even made a movie about it.
他們乃至為此建造了一部片子。
We are bettin' 40,000.
咱們赌 40，000 美元。
You guys drug dealers?
你們是毒估客吗？
No!
不是！
We're professional lottery players.
咱們是职業彩票玩家。
In Cash Windfall, the way it worked was when the jackpot got pretty big, they would take some of that money and increase the value of the smaller prizes.
在 Cash Windfall 中，它的道理是当头奖变得至關大時，他們會拿走一些錢，增长较小奖項的價值。
So, to win the jackpot, you have to take the right number, it's about a one in 9,000,000 chance, but the smaller prizes are much more likely to win.
以是，要博得头奖，你必需選擇准确的数字，這约莫是九百万分之一的機遇，可是较小的奖項更有可能中奖。
So, if you could buy some, but not all, of the tickets in that situation, like, say you could buy 1,000,000 tickets, your odds of winning the jackpot are not so big, one in nine, but you're gonna win a bunch of the lower tier prizes, which are now bigger, and if they're enough bigger, you're gonna make money out of your total investment.
以是，若是你能在這類環境下買一些，但不是全数的票，好比，假如你能買 100 万张票，你博得头奖的概率其實不大，九分之一，可是你會博得一堆较初级此外奖金，而它們如今更大了，若是它們足够大，那末你就會從你的总投資中赚錢。
It's really hard and unusual to be in a situation where you could reasonably expect to make money on the lottery.
在如许一個環境下，你可以公道地指望經由過程彩票赚錢，這真的很難也很不平常。
It's gambling.
這是打赌。
You might get lucky, but it's really getting lucky, but I'm not telling you don't buy lottery tickets骨質增生,.
你可能會交運，但這就是試試看，但我不是奉告你不要買彩票。
I personally buy lottery tickets.
我本身就買彩票。
I buy them for the fantasy to think for a few days about, oh, what happens if I win this big jackpot?
我買它們是為了空想几天，哦，若是我赢了這個头奖會產生甚麼？
And that's really worth something. |
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發表於 2024-8-1 21:54:13
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