標題: 数學家教你 如何彩票中大奖!The Best Ways to Win the Lottery [打印本頁] 作者: admin 時間: 2024-8-1 21:54 標題: 数學家教你 如何彩票中大奖!The Best Ways to Win the Lottery The lottery is obviously pretty hard to win, but of course, we had to test it ourselves, so we got a few Wired colleagues to play a scratcher game.
彩票明显很難中奖，但固然，咱們必需本身测試，以是咱們找了一些連線節目標同事来玩刮刮樂遊戲。
I didn't win anything.
我甚麼也没赢。
I did not win anything.
我甚麼也没赢。
Nothing.
甚麼也没赢？
I got nothing.
我一無所得。
I lost.
我输了。
But I didn't. Nothing.
但我没有中奖。甚麼都没有。
I have won $5, so I'm up by $2.
我中了 5 美元，以是我总雙赢了 2 美元。
Scratchers are just one of the many lottery games out there.
刮刮樂只是浩繁彩票遊戲之一。
Beyond that, you have draw games at both the state and national level, and in particular, the Powerball, which keeps on making the news because the jackpots are so big.
除此以外，另有州级和國度级的抽奖遊戲，特别是强力球，它一向是消息，由于头奖太大了。
There are definitely lotteries that are easier to win than other lotteries.
必定有彩票比其他彩票更易中奖。
When you gamble normally, a bigger chance of winning means lower payout.
当你正常打赌時，更大的获胜機會心味着更低的付出。
So, for example, this is familiar from roulette where, if you bet on red or black, you get less money in return than if you bet on a single number where you get a lot more in return because your odds of winning with red or black bet is much higher.
Similarly, your odds of winning on a Powerball or Mega Millions ticket are very low, about one in 300,000,000.
一样，你博得强力球或百万彩票的概率也很低，约莫是三亿分之一。
Let's look at that one more time.
讓咱們再看一遍。
Your chances of winning the Powerball Jackpot equal about one in 300,000,000.
你博得强力球大奖的機遇约為 300，000，000 分之一。
There are all kinds of lottery prizes out there and some of them are still pretty big, but they're not $1,000,000,000.
有各類各样的彩票奖金，此中一些依然很大，但不是 10 亿美元。
Next, playing certain numbers.
下一種，玩一些数字。
Well, you're not gonna increase your chances of winning by some strategy about how you pick the exact numbers that you pick.
嗯，你没法經由過程選擇某些切当数字的计谋来增长你获胜的機遇。
However, for games like Powerball and Mega Millions, what you'd like to do, if you win the jackpot, is to be the only one who wins the jackpot so you don't split it.
So, with that perspective in mind, you'd like to pick unpopular numbers.
以是，從這個角度来看，你想選擇不受接待的数字。
You'd like to pick numbers that other people won't pick.
你想選擇其别人不會選擇的数字。
Don't pick dates, for example, because a lot of people gamble based on dates.
比方，不要選擇日期，由于不少人按照日期打赌。
Other advice might be, if you look at the ticket where you pic淡紋面膜,k your numbers, don't just pick a column of numbers on that ticket, for example, because some people will do that.
其他建议多是，若是你看着你選擇数字的票，比方，不要只選擇票上的一列数字，由于有些人會這麼做。
Repeat winners, like Richard Lustig, won over $1,000,000, advocated for playing sequential numbers.
像理查德·卢斯蒂格如许博得了跨越 100 万美元的反复获胜者主意玩次序数字。
Now, this won't increase your odds of winning.
這不會增长你获胜的概率。
That kind of thing is gonna give you the same chance of winning the jackpot as any other method of choosing.
它讓你博得头奖的機遇跟其他法子同样。
However, if you loo髮際粉,k at a ticket like that, it looks weird.
但是，若是你如许看一张彩票，看起来很奇异。
So many sequential numbers help you not share the jackpot, which is good.
不少序号會帮忙你不跟他人分享头奖，這很好。
I don't know, but that's how it strikes me as a mathematician.
So, what are some ways that people attempt to increase their odds of winning the lottery?
那末，人們有哪些法子可以增长中彩票的概率呢？
First, playing every single number combination in the drawing.
起首，写出每個数字组合。
So, for Mega Millions and Powerball, that's not really a feasible choice 'cause there's 300,000,000 tickets.
以是，對付超等百万和强力球来讲，這不是一個可行的選擇，由于有 3 亿张彩票。
It's super hard to go to the store and buy that many tickets.
你很難去商铺買那末多彩票。
You need a whole army of helpers.
你必要一大群帮忙。
It's a complicated endeavor, but for smaller state level lotteries, which have fewer tickets that you have to buy, and also a smaller jackpot, people have done that.
如许费劲不奉迎，可是對付较小的州级彩票来讲，你得采办的彩票更少，头奖也更小，人們已如许做了。
So, in particular, in New South Wales in 1986, a syndicate did that in Virginia in 1992, and then with the Irish National Lottery.
Now, in these cases, they didn't actually succeed in getting 100% of the tickets, but they got enough that they got lucky and they did win the jackpot.
在這些環境下，他們现實上并無樂成得到全数彩票，可是他們命運實足，他們确切博得了头奖。
Now, if you do actually decide to do this, there are a bit of logistics involved.
若是你真的决议做這件事，就會触及到一些後勤事情。
You're actually gonna have to go to the stores and buy those tickets.
你得去商铺買那些彩票。
You can't just pay the clerk in a lottery store to buy those tickets 'cause they're not allowed to do that by most lottery regulations, and there's another 'gotcha' that's really obvious, which is it could happen that someone else also wins the jackpot and you have to split it with them.
So, as someone trying to pursue this strategy, you absolutely want to keep your eyes open to that possibility.
以是，作為一個想要利用這類计谋的人，你绝對要睁大眼睛领會到這類可能性。
Finally, some states have a higher chance of winning than others.
最後，一些州比其他州中奖的機遇更高。
Statisticians and economists have mapped out states that have a high rate of return.
统计學家和經濟學家已绘制出了回報率高的州。
A good recipe to look for is you want a lottery where maybe not a lot of people are buying tickets and yet, the jackpot is pretty big.
一個很好的法子是，你想要一张彩票，或许没有几多人買，但是，头奖至關大。
So, there's a classic example of Oregon in 1999.
這是 1999 年俄勒冈州的一個經典例子。
They had an $18,000,000 jackpot and yet, they didn't sell that many tickets, and what that means is when you buy a ticket in such a drawing, you're unlikely to share the jackpot.
Similarly, in mid-aughts in Texas, the Llano, Texas had drawings like that as well, and so looking around for those kinds of drawings, that's one way to increase your expected return on buying a lottery ticket.
And scratchers can have a high rate of return as well.
刮刮樂的回報率也很高。
The lottery has printed it out and picked the prizes in such a way that the total value of the prizes is less than the amount people are gonna spend on tickets, so they're gonna make money.
On average, you buy scratcher tickets and you're gonna lose money, just like any other gambling.
均匀来讲，你買刮刮樂，你會赔錢，就像其他打赌同样。
That said, sometimes it happens that the big prizes in the scratcher game don't get bought at the beginning of the game, and so effectively, all the people buying up those tickets at the beginning got unlucky and they didn't get the big prizes and then the remaining lottery tickets, the remaining scratchers that wait to be bought, have too many prizes.
Many states show you how many of the prizes have been claimed and that information gets aggregated into other websites like scratch off-odds. com and similar sites where you can go to that site and they'll tell you sort of which lottery scratcher ticket games have better payouts right now.
In Cash Windfall, the way it worked was when the jackpot got pretty big, they would take some of that money and increase the value of the smaller prizes.
So, to win the jackpot, you have to take the right number, it's about a one in 9,000,000 chance, but the smaller prizes are much more likely to win.
以是，要博得头奖，你必需選擇准确的数字，這约莫是九百万分之一的機遇，可是较小的奖項更有可能中奖。
So, if you could buy some, but not all, of the tickets in that situation, like, say you could buy 1,000,000 tickets, your odds of winning the jackpot are not so big, one in nine, but you're gonna win a bunch of the lower tier prizes, which are now bigger, and if they're enough bigger, you're gonna make money out of your total investment.